The next big thing, Google Nexus One? I don’t think so…

This week is all about the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. CES, the beginning of the new year, where all of the major (and most of the minor) players unveil their latest Consumer Tech Gadgets. All, apart from Apple of course, they host their own Macworld event in a couple of weeks.

The buzz from the start of the show has been about the new Google smartphone. The Nexus One ! Like all good technology announcements, the  Nexus One is covered in controversy from those “in the know,” and pretty much ignored by your “average Joe.” In a moment of brilliant timing, Google eclipsed Apple’s “3 Billion App Store Downloads” announcement. My take is that was more Apple’s attempt to sabotage the Google (or any major CES) announcement than vice versa. They could save their announcement for Macworld with no danger of being eclipsed.

The general consensus, however, seems to be that 2010 will be the year of Android in the Smartphone industry. And certainly, with over 5,000,000 hits a day on the Google.com search page, there probably isn’t a better advertising property in the world to place your ad. The Nexus One ad is unprecedented for this white page, and will certainly have generated lots of interest. (Note: This ad has been since removed)

Alas, unless you actually work for Google, it’s all but impossible to get hold of a Nexus One in Australia. But that’s ok, there’re enough videos and reviews, comments and opinions, not to mention comparisons from the aforementioned experts to get the gist of this device.

Personally, I don’t think that Android will scoop the smartphone market, at least not in 2010. Here’s why:

• Multiple devices do give customers choice, but they make it a nightmare for developers. This is one of the biggest issues with Microsoft Windows Marketplace – there are just too many device types to design apps for, many without features which provide competitive differentiation (e.g. GPS). For developers to focus on one device model, or type, you severely restrict your market. Google is heading exactly the same way.
• Apple is at Gen 3. This is an important point. Everyone, Palm, Microsoft, Google, even Sony, Samsung, and Nokia, are playing catch-up. In a yacht race the leading boat simply has to match the 2nd boat move for move to stay ahead. Apple has shown remarkable focus in the MP3 market, totally overwhelming the big electronics vendors. The strategy lessons learned here are being employed again. Apple have not been sitting on their laurels waiting for the competition to catch-up. My prediction is the next iteration of the iPhone will be streets ahead of all of the catch-up models.
• Businessmen may be consumers, but they’re tied to the Enterprise. All the reports of the Nexus One indicate that synching with Exchange (I haven’t read about Lotus Notes) is unusable. It’s all very well to synch with GMail, but as first Palm, then RIM, & even Apple highlighted so successfully, if you can’t synch with Enterprise Mail, Calendar, Contacts, you’ll miss this most important market.
• We’re not ready for everything in the Cloud. This is why both iTunes & MS Exchange is so successful. Software (on the iPod/iPhone/Computer & Mobile Phone/PC/MAc) + Services (iTunes & Exchange Server in the Cloud). Travel outside of your 3G access area, which is not so far even in countries like the USA, let alone Australia, and have no access to your calendar, music, or important data? I don’t think so…
• Telco relationships anyone? Nokia, Sony-Ericsson, Apple, Samsung, even Palm, have this sewn up in every country that counts. There’s a reason why the iPhone was initially tied to networks, it’s about guaranteed data revenue. Apple have successfully taken their model of building relationships with Music Publishers, and developed these with Telcos as well. The iPhone SW + Services strategy guarantees 3G data.
• The persistent Dark Horse. The best company I worked for is known to persist, and persist, and persist, with very deep pockets. Microsoft, like RIM, Palm, & Nokia, were certainly blindsided by Apple, but they’re not known to just accept defeat, nor rest on their laurels. MS have a number of assets which shouldn’t be ignored –
  • Enterprise email – MS Exchange pretty much has this sewn up in most of the world. Do not underestimate how many people get their email from Exchange. (e.g. Live@Edu is hosted on Exchange2010 too)
  • Consumer email – Hotmail/Live Mail still has more active users than any of it’s competitors
  • XBox Live – This is fast becoming more than a gaming platform, but a media delivery mechanism into the home. It also is the largest vendor network service delivering Movies, Music, Games, Chat, Social Networking (Facebook connect) – extend this to the 4th screen (1. Cinema, 2. TV, 3. PC, 4. Mobile) and unlock an individual’s computer mediated connectivity away from home.
  • Geographical Footprint – no high-tech company, apart from probably Intel or Cisco, operate in more countries, certainly none with more partnerships and relationships, than Microsoft.
  • Device manufacturers – what all the commentators neglect to mention is that HTC was made by Windows Mobile, back when they started as the OEM for Compaq. Now Apple has proven you only need one manufacturer but relationships with MS run deep, and long. This should not be underestimated.
  • 10 years of making a smartphone & 30 years of developing for consumers. Have they cocked up some things? Sure. But Windows 7, the fastest growing OS in history & Exchange, the most used enterprise email platform, & XBox, #1 or #2 in most countries, demonstrate that they get things right too.
  • $9b R&D – this is nearly 3 times the R&D budget of Australia. All those cool technologies you saw in The Island, Minority Report, Avatar, they’re all being developed at MSR.

Now, I don’t think that the Windows Phone is going to make any comebacks anytime soon, although I’d love to be corrected. But Android taking this market in 2010 is by no means Fait Accompli. I for one will be keeping my eye on announcements from Macworld, not to mention the Windows Phone, XBox Live, and Zune developments.

I caught up with Tony Hollingsworth on Thursday at the first 2010 North Shore Coffee Morning, and got his thoughts (as an avid gPhone user) on the Nexus One.

Here’s a thought…

I think that Nokia would tip this battle. If MS could convince them to release a Smartphone on Windows Phone (6.5 or 7) then, Nokia’s consumer & Telco network customer footprint would ensure this becomes the de facto standard. This is not as far fetched as it seems (Disclaimer: I’ve worked for both Nokia and Microsoft, but have no connections at this level) – after all the first Nokia Netbook PC is running Windows 7, not ChromeOS or Linux.

Similarly, Nokia is an avid Linux advocate, so if Google could convince them to invest in Android, this too would tip the balance in the other direction.

Either way, the Apple iPhone would become a sunset technology. A thing of legend. The catalyst. Great whilst it lasted.

If I were in Product Development at MS or Google, I know who I’d be courting. Probably a good thing I’m not

Tagged as: Apple, Google, iPhone, Microsoft, Mobile, Nexus One, Nokia, Smartphone, Windows Phone